Lead Data Scientist, Forecasting

Lead Data Scientist, Forecasting Denver, CO, United StatesGuild is hiring a Lead Data Scientist, Forecasting to scale the impact of our Forecasting and Financial Analytics team. You'll own and improve critical components of our most complex and most important forecasting model — working inside a modern, modular forecasting system and experimentation framework to drive step-change improvements in how well we forecast clients' education benefit program. As a Lead Data Scientist, Forecasting, you will: Develop and improve the usage-based forecasting models for critical components of clients' education benefit with Guild, using advanced statistical and machine learning techniques. Raise forecast accuracy and shorten the monthly refresh cycle, using a backtesting and experimentation framework to test methodological changes with rigor. Build tooling and process to catch correctable model issues. Transfer modeling logic out of individual heads into well-structured, documented, tested code, building redundancy on a business-critical forecast. Partner cross-functionally with Analytics, Data Science, Data Engineering, Product, and Technology teams to improve the data, systems, and infrastructure the forecast depends on. Mentor and guide junior team members, fostering a culture of continuous learning and innovation. Produce insights, analyses, and recommendations to help internal stakeholders understand forecast drivers and the impact on client and internal business metrics. You are a strong fit for this role if you have:5+ years of total experience in analytics, data science, forecasting, or financial planning & analysis. Strong experience with SQL and experience transforming and structuring large datasets into reusable formats. Proficiency in Python and/or R, with depth across time-series and machine learning forecasting methods and sound judgment about the tradeoffs among accuracy, interpretability, and stability. Experience operationalizing models — backtesting, validation, monitoring, drift detection, retraining — ideally on a platform such as Databricks with experiment tracking (e.g., MLflow).A track record of getting productive quickly in an existing codebase and improving it collaboratively. Experience with Looker, Tableau, Omni, or similar data visualization tool. Fluency with AI-assisted development tools such as Cursor, Claude Code, or similar coding agents. The ability to translate forecasts, including their uncertainty, into clear recommendations for non-technical stakeholders. We are committed to equal pay for equal work and believe in compensation transparency. All salary ranges are standardized nationwide and will not vary by region. This role offers a competitive total compensation package, including a base salary of $140,000 - $200,000 and stock options. Compensation offered will be based on a combination of factors such as experience, competencies, and internal equity.